This chart shows the cumulative number of days after a specified yield spread has turned negative (inverted), counting up until the spread recovers above zero — at which point the counter resets. Treasury yield spreads are derived from Constant Maturity Treasury rates by subtracting a shorter-maturity yield from a longer one (e.g., 10Y − 3M). When the 10Y−3M spread is negative, the yield on the 10Y government bond is lower than that of the 3M bill, signalling that markets expect future rates and growth to fall. Historically, every U.S. recession has been preceded by a yield curve inversion, and longer inversions have tended to precede more severe downturns. The S&P 500 overlay lets you visualise how equity markets have behaved across each inversion episode. Data sourced from FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).