The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) is the ratio between the market cap (price × supply) and the realized cap (cost basis × supply). The realized cap values each coin based on the price it was last moved on-chain, rather than its current market value. In this way it also accounts for lost and dormant supply.

Interpretation: Higher MVRV values indicate a larger degree of unrealized profit in the system, whereas lower values indicate that a large amount of the supply is near break-even or held at a loss. Extreme values of MVRV can be used to identify market-cycle tops (MVRV > 3.5) and bottoms (MVRV < 1). Historically, each market cycle bottom and the March 2020 capitulation event happened when the realized market cap exceeded the default market cap — i.e., MVRV fell below 1.

Approximation Note: Since on-chain UTXO data is not available from public APIs without a key, this chart uses an exponential-decay volume-weighted average price as a proxy for realized price. The "Turnover" half-life parameter controls how quickly old volume expires — a 500D half-life means that volume from 500 days ago has half its original weight, simulating coin turnover. The general shape and key turning points closely match the on-chain MVRV from CryptoQuant/Glassnode.