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BTC Short Term Bubble Risk
About this chart
The Short Term Bubble Risk (STBR) is defined as the ratio of the price to the
20-week simple moving average (20W SMA), which is approximated as a 140-day SMA on daily data.
A value of < 1 is bearish (price is below the 20W SMA). 1–1.25 is business as usual. 1.50–1.75 is risky. 1.75–2 is super risky. > 2 means a bubble pop is imminent.
Over the macro scale, the extension from the 20W SMA tends to decrease for many assets as market capitalization increases over time — it becomes harder to push the price as high above the 20W SMA as in the lower market cap stages. On the other hand, the minimum extension below the 20W SMA (values < 1) has stayed more or less the same over time for Bitcoin.
A value of < 1 is bearish (price is below the 20W SMA). 1–1.25 is business as usual. 1.50–1.75 is risky. 1.75–2 is super risky. > 2 means a bubble pop is imminent.
Over the macro scale, the extension from the 20W SMA tends to decrease for many assets as market capitalization increases over time — it becomes harder to push the price as high above the 20W SMA as in the lower market cap stages. On the other hand, the minimum extension below the 20W SMA (values < 1) has stayed more or less the same over time for Bitcoin.