The Sahm Rule Recession Indicator is a real-time recession detection tool developed by economist Claudia Sahm. It signals that a recession has likely begun when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months. The threshold of 0.50 (shown as the orange dashed line) has historically coincided with the early months of every U.S. recession since 1970, making it a timely and reliable early-warning signal. When the indicator crosses the threshold, gray recession shading typically follows shortly after. Data sourced from FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).