Terminal Price is a top-indicator model originally created by _Checkmatey_ and David Puell (November 2021). It is derived from Transferred Price — the cumulative "Value Days Destroyed" (price × coin days destroyed) divided by market age × supply. Terminal Price = 21 × Transferred Price, applying the total supply cap as a multiplier to project forward. This chart uses a power-law regression calibrated against reference values from Into The Cryptoverse. Realized Price approximates the UTXO-weighted average cost basis of all BTC — essentially what the average holder paid for their coins. It is modeled as a time-decaying EMA whose half-life grows as the market matures. Balanced Price = Realized Price − Transferred Price. It represents the floor where cost basis minus transferred value intersects — a deep value zone. When BTC price approaches Terminal Price, that has historically been a good time to sell. When BTC price approaches Balanced Price or Realized Price, that has historically been a good time to buy.