The RGDP Recession Indicator is a recession probability model developed by economist James Hamilton in 2005. It estimates the probability that the U.S. economy is currently in a recession based on the annualized rate of change in real GDP. The model assigns a probability between 0% and 100% — when it rises above 67% it has historically been a reliable signal that the economy has entered a recession, and once it falls back below 33% the recession is considered to be over. Because GDP is reported with a significant lag, this indicator is most useful for historical context and early confirmation rather than real-time prediction. Data sourced from FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), series JHGDPBRINDX.