Macro Dashboard

Interest Rates

Effective Federal Funds Rate

The actual overnight rate at which banks lend reserves to each other.

Fed Funds Target Range

The FOMC target corridor — upper and lower bound set at each meeting.

Interest Rate (International)

Benchmark policy rates for major central banks compared side by side.

Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate — key driver of housing affordability.

Yield Curve

Treasury Yield Spreads

Spread between long and short-term Treasuries — inversion historically precedes recession.

Days After Inversion

Counts days elapsed since the yield curve inverted, with historical recession lags.

Credit & Lending

Credit & Lending

Bank Lending Standards

Net % of banks tightening C&I lending standards — a leading credit cycle indicator.

Credit & Lending

Delinquency Rates

Percentage of loans past due — spikes during recessions signal consumer stress.

Labor Market

Unemployment Level

Number of unemployed people in the US — spikes sharply at the onset of recessions.

Sahm Rule Indicator

Signals recession when 3M avg unemployment rises ≥0.5pp above its 12M low.

Sahm Rule: States Triggered

Count of US states where the Sahm Rule threshold has been breached.

Sahm Rule State Map

Geographic view of which states have triggered the Sahm Rule recession signal.

Weekly new unemployment insurance filings — a real-time labor market pulse.

Initial Claims State Map (YoY)

Which states are seeing year-over-year increases in new unemployment filings.

Job Openings (JOLTS)

Total job openings from the JOLTS survey — peaked in 2022 and has since declined.

Job Postings on Indeed

Real-time high-frequency job postings data from Indeed, indexed to pre-COVID levels.

Total hires from the JOLTS survey — measures the pace of new hiring activity.

KC Fed LMCI Level

Kansas City Fed composite of 24 labor market indicators — goes deeply negative in recessions.

LT Unemployment (International)

Long-term unemployment rates across major economies — structural vs. cyclical comparison.

Inflation

CPI year-over-year — surged to 9%+ in 2022, then fell back toward the 2% target.

Inflation YoY Per Category

CPI broken down by category — housing, food, energy, services, and core compared.

CPI Contributions Per Category

Stacked bars showing each category's contribution to the overall CPI reading.

Average US retail egg prices — skyrocketed due to avian flu outbreaks in 2022–2025.

Money Supply & Federal Reserve

M1 Money Supply

Narrow money supply including currency and demand deposits — exploded in 2020.

M2 Money Supply

Broad money including M1 plus savings accounts — first YoY decline in 2023 since the 1930s.

Retail Money Market Funds

Assets in retail MMFs — surged to record highs as investors chased 5%+ yields in 2023–24.

Global Net Liquidity

Combined central bank balance sheets (Fed, ECB, BOJ, PBoC) minus Treasury reserves.

Fed Total Assets

Federal Reserve balance sheet — expanded massively with QE, now shrinking via QT.

GDP & Fiscal

Federal Surplus / Deficit

US federal government monthly surplus or deficit — deeply negative in recessions and post-COVID.

Federal Tax Receipts

Total federal government tax revenue — tracks economic activity and policy changes.

RGDP Recession Indicator

Real GDP growth rate with recession periods shaded — visualizes contractions clearly.

Net saving by sector — turns negative when debt-financed spending exceeds income.

Housing

Months To Sell A New Home

Months of inventory supply at current sales pace — low values signal tight market conditions.

Sales Price of Houses Sold

Median sale price of US homes — has risen significantly, especially post-2020.

Sentiment & Uncertainty

Sentiment & Surveys

Michigan Consumer Sentiment

University of Michigan survey of consumer confidence — hit record lows during 2022 inflation.

Sentiment & Surveys

World Uncertainty Index

Tracks uncertainty across 143 countries using IMF World Economic Outlook reports.

Sentiment & Surveys

Economic Policy Uncertainty

News-based index measuring uncertainty about US economic policy — spikes at elections and crises.

Sentiment & Surveys

EPU Categorical Indices

EPU broken down by policy area: monetary, fiscal, trade, healthcare, and more.

Business Cycle & Recession

Smoothed Recession Probabilities

Probit model probability that the US is in recession — near 0% normally, spikes near 100% at recessions.

Past Recession Statistics

Historical comparison of recession depth, duration, and recovery across all post-war cycles.

Commodities

Crude Oil (WTI)

West Texas Intermediate crude oil price — highly volatile, sensitive to geopolitical events.

Other

Economic calendar with upcoming data releases and indicator dashboard.

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