Risk is a composite of four on-chain-inspired signals: 35% 365-day running ROI (rate of change — drives the sharp peaks at cycle tops), 30% log-deviation from the power-law trendline (long-term cycle position), 20% log-deviation from MA200 (medium-term momentum), and 15% log-deviation from the ~3-year MA — a proxy for MVRV (how far price is above the average holder cost basis). The composite score is mapped to 0–1 using a sigmoid-atan transform — risk = sigmoid(K · atan(score)) with asymmetric scaling for bear markets. The atan() compresses extreme scores from early cycles (diminishing returns), while the sigmoid provides smooth 0–1 bounds with well-calibrated cycle peaks and bottoms. The result is a 0–1 scale where 1.0 = historical peak risk (cycle tops) and 0.0 = historical minimum risk (cycle bottoms). Reference lines at 0.2 (accumulation zone) and 0.8 (distribution zone).