Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) measures the ratio of unrealized profit or loss in the network relative to market cap. The true NUPL requires on-chain data (realized cap from UTXO age), which isn't available from free price APIs. This chart uses an exponential decay proxy to approximate the realized cap — modeling the aggregate cost basis as a weighted average of historical prices where recent prices carry more weight (mimicking coin turnover with ~462-day half-life, calibrated to match on-chain NUPL reference values).

NUPL = (Market Cap − Realized Cap) / Market Cap. Values above 0.75 historically indicate euphoria (cycle tops), while values below 0 indicate capitulation (cycle bottoms). The market cap is computed from price × estimated circulating supply (from the known emission schedule).

Note: This is a price-based approximation. For true on-chain NUPL, use Glassnode or CryptoQuant.