This chart shows the Treasury Yield Spread, calculated by subtracting a shorter-maturity interest rate from a longer one (e.g., 10Y − 3M). When the spread turns negative (yield curve inversion), it has historically been a reliable predictor of upcoming economic recessions. In normal conditions, longer-term bonds yield more than shorter-term ones to compensate investors for the added risk of holding debt for longer periods. An inverted yield curve suggests that investors expect future interest rates — and economic growth — to decline. Data sourced from FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).